Post-Market Recap for The Futures Playbook - 20 Nov 2024
Key Highlights and Observations
The day concluded with mixed results across the analyzed futures contracts. Below is a detailed assessment of how the pre-bell strategy translated into actual market performance.
1. ES=F (S&P 500 Futures)
Strategy: Expected a bullish breakout above 5957.75, targeting 5975, or a bearish drop below 5937.
Performance: Closed at 5920.25, down 18.5 points. The high of the day matched resistance at 5957.75 but failed to break higher.
Outcome: Likely a stop-out if a bullish position was taken above resistance.
Takeaway: Resistance at 5957.75 proved strong. A tighter stop near the resistance would have minimized losses.
2. NQ=F (NASDAQ Futures)
Strategy: Bullish breakout above 20843 targeting 20920 or rejection leading to 20650.
Performance: Closed at 20641, down 126.75 points. The high touched 20843.25 but reversed sharply.
Outcome: A failed breakout triggered the bearish scenario, which could have been profitable if executed.
Takeaway: Strong rejection at resistance emphasizes the importance of quick adjustments when breakouts fail.
3. YM=F (Dow Futures)
Strategy: Bullish move above 43563 targeting 43700 or bearish drop below 43399.
Performance: Closed at 43501, up 101 points. It broke resistance at 43563 briefly, reaching 43590, but reversed.
Outcome: Modest gains possible if the bullish breakout was captured and exited before reversal.
Takeaway: Low volatility limited significant profits, as forecasted.
4. RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures)
Strategy: Expected reversal above 2343 targeting 2355 or break below 2328 leading to 2315.
Performance: Closed at 2335.8, up slightly 1.7 points. Touched resistance at 2343.5 but failed to sustain momentum.
Outcome: Small gain/loss depending on execution and tight stops.
Takeaway: Weak confidence in the small-cap sector was validated.
5. GC=F (Gold Futures)
Strategy: Bullish breakout above 2645 targeting 2660.
Performance: Closed at 2653.3, up 22.3 points. High of 2659 nearly hit the target.
Outcome: Likely profitable trade for bullish traders.
Takeaway: Gold’s strong bullish fundamentals delivered as forecasted.
6. CL=F (Crude Oil Futures)
Strategy: Bullish above 70.15 targeting 71.00 or bearish below 69.38 targeting 68.50.
Performance: Closed at 68.95, down 0.44 points. Fell below support but failed to reach bearish target.
Outcome: Limited profit or stop-out for bearish positions.
Takeaway: Neutral momentum highlighted the need for caution.
7. ZN=F (10-Year Treasury Futures)
Strategy: Bullish above 109.81 or bearish below 109.48.
Performance: Closed at 109.64, down 0.203 points. High of 109.8125 and low of 109.453125 matched scenarios.
Outcome: Minimal volatility likely resulted in small gains/losses.
Takeaway: Limited movement reinforced the avoidance recommendation.
8. ZB=F (30-Year Treasury Futures)
Strategy: Bullish above 116.78 or bearish below 116.12.
Performance: Closed at 116.46875, down 0.4375 points. Low of 116.09375 touched bearish target.
Outcome: Moderate profit possible for bearish traders.
Takeaway: Weak trends limited profit potential.
General Recommendations
Top Performers:
Gold (GC=F): Delivered a strong bullish move, aligning with pre-market analysis.
Russell (RTY=F): Limited movement but respected levels closely.
Missed Opportunities:
NASDAQ (NQ=F): A sharp reversal from resistance highlights the need for tighter stop management near key levels.
S&P 500 (ES=F): Resistance was strong, confirming the importance of identifying rejection points early.
Underperformers:
Treasuries (ZN=F and ZB=F): Limited movement made these contracts less attractive.
Closing Remarks
Today's performance underscores the value of disciplined risk management and swift adaptability to intraday conditions. While some trades delivered as expected, others reinforced the importance of respecting strong resistance/support levels and being cautious with breakouts.
The strategy's focus on high-probability setups provided solid opportunities but highlighted the challenges of intraday reversals. Continue refining stop-loss placement and reassessing confidence levels in volatile scenarios.
