Post-Market Recap for The Futures Playbook - 19 Nov 2024

Market Performance Review

Today's trading action played out with mixed results based on the pre-bell strategy:

Detailed Performance by Asset

1. 30-Year Treasury Futures (ZB=F)

• Outcome: Despite the pre-market bullish setup, ZB dropped by -0.3125 points, closing at 116.59375. This underperformance indicated waning safe-haven flows as the session progressed.

• Feedback: The bearish scenario below 117.10 triggered, hitting near the anticipated support at 116.70. Traders capitalizing on this reversal saw opportunities to lock in small profits.

2. 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN=F)

• Outcome: ZN also declined slightly by -0.125 points, ending at 109.71875.

• Feedback: ZN struggled to maintain bullish momentum above 110.10. Short scenarios below 109.60 offered modest profits for disciplined traders, aligning with the day’s risk-off sentiment moderation.

3. Crude Oil Futures (CL=F)

• Outcome: Crude oil managed a small gain (+0.11), closing at 69.5 after hitting a high of 69.69 and a low of 68.45.

• Feedback: CL remained choppy, with no strong breakout. The low-confidence rating in the strategy proved accurate, and avoiding this asset was prudent for most traders.

4. Gold Futures (GC=F)

• Outcome: GC exceeded expectations, rallying +6.30 to close at 2637.3, hitting the upper resistance of 2637.8 during the session.

• Feedback: The pre-market bullish scenario delivered strongly, rewarding traders with a clean run from 2645 to 2655 and beyond. Safe-haven demand stayed intact, making gold the star performer.

5. Russell 2000 Futures (RTY=F)

• Outcome: RTY edged up slightly by +5 points, closing at 2339.1.

• Feedback: The small upward movement remained within a choppy range. Traders entering above 2300 saw limited upside, with positions requiring tight risk management.

6. S&P 500 Futures (ES=F)

• Outcome: ES inched higher by +5.75, closing at 5944.5, after testing the resistance at 5945.75.

• Feedback: Reversal patterns near the 5900 level materialized but lacked follow-through for breakout momentum. A neutral to bullish bias helped short-term scalpers capture profits.

7. Nasdaq Futures (NQ=F)

• Outcome: NQ rallied by +14.75 points, closing at 20782.5, testing the upper resistance at 20787.75.

• Feedback: Relief rallies above 20550 offered scalping opportunities, aligning well with the pre-market bullish scenario. However, the movement lacked significant directional strength.

8. Dow Futures (YM=F)

• Outcome: YM climbed +53 points, closing at 43453, after testing 43465 during the session.

• Feedback: The recovery above 43400 provided some long-side opportunities, though the overall movement remained subdued.

Key Takeaways

1. Top Performers:

   • Gold Futures (GC=F): Outperformed with a clean bullish breakout, rewarding traders who followed the high-probability scenario.

   • Nasdaq Futures (NQ=F): Provided decent upside, though gains were less significant.

2. Challenging Assets:

   • Treasuries (ZB=F, ZN=F): Both underperformed relative to pre-market bullish expectations. Bearish reversals were better aligned with market action.

   • Crude Oil (CL=F): As expected, CL remained difficult to trade with no decisive moves.

3. Overall Strategy Validation:

   • The pre-bell strategy accurately highlighted gold and Nasdaq as high-probability trades.

   • Avoidance of crude oil was well-founded, saving traders from unnecessary risk.

Looking Ahead

• Focus Areas: Gold remains a strong candidate, while treasuries may rebound depending on macroeconomic events.

• Lesson: Stick to disciplined entries and manage positions with tight stops in choppy assets.