Post-Market Recap for The Futures Playbook - 18 Nov 2024

Here’s a breakdown of how the day’s trading strategy unfolded based on the pre-bell insights and actual market performance for the futures contracts:

1. 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (ZB=F)

• Pre-Bell Analysis: ZB was expected to consolidate with a resistance level of 116.25 and support at 115.28.

• Outcome: The price hovered within the projected range (High: 116.625, Low: 115.28125), indicating successful identification of consolidation.

• Performance: No significant breakout occurred, making this a neutral to low-priority trade.

• Trade Summary: Moderate accuracy, but low profit potential due to range-bound behavior.

2. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures (ZN=F)

• Pre-Bell Analysis: Bullish above 109.60; bearish below 109.10.

• Outcome: ZN rose slightly to close at 109.625 after testing resistance at 109.6875. Bullish trades yielded modest gains.

• Performance: High accuracy for bullish trades but limited upside movement.

• Trade Summary: Successful but lacked significant volatility for large profits.

3. Crude Oil Futures (CL=F)

• Pre-Bell Analysis: Bullish above 67.70 with a target of 68.50; bearish below 66.50.

• Outcome: CL surged to a high of 69.39, exceeding expectations.

• Performance: Bullish trades performed exceptionally well, with targets surpassed significantly.

• Trade Summary: High accuracy and profitability. Crude oil’s strong momentum made it a standout.

4. Gold Futures (GC=F)

• Pre-Bell Analysis: Bullish above 2610 with a target of 2630; bearish below 2570.

• Outcome: GC hit a high of 2619.5, closely following the bullish trajectory, but resistance at 2619.5 capped further gains.

• Performance: Bullish trades were moderately successful with limited follow-through.

• Trade Summary: Accurate with moderate returns; RSI overbought levels kept gains in check.

5. E-mini Russell 2000 Futures (RTY=F)

• Pre-Bell Analysis: Bullish above 2330 targeting 2345; bearish below 2310.

• Outcome: RTY peaked at 2334.4, achieving partial gains for bullish positions.

• Performance: Accurate on direction but slightly below full target expectations.

• Trade Summary: Moderate profitability with strong trend identification.

6. E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES=F)

• Pre-Bell Analysis: Bullish above 5920 targeting 5950; bearish below 5880.

• Outcome: ES climbed to 5933, hitting bullish targets partially.

• Performance: Bullish trades were accurate with strong returns for those exiting near 5930.

• Trade Summary: High accuracy and good returns for long positions.

7. E-mini Nasdaq Futures (NQ=F)

• Pre-Bell Analysis: Bullish above 20660 targeting 20800; bearish below 20450.

• Outcome: NQ rallied to 20724.25, reaching near-projected resistance but falling short of 20800.

• Performance: Bullish positions were highly successful with significant gains.

• Trade Summary: Strong performance; best trade of the day with high profitability.

8. E-mini Dow Jones Futures (YM=F)

• Pre-Bell Analysis: Bullish above 43630; bearish below 43380.

• Outcome: YM showed mixed performance, failing to break above 43630 and closing at 43521.

• Performance: Neither scenario materialized, resulting in a no-trade situation.

• Trade Summary: Low opportunity and muted action; minimal risk exposure.

Performance Recap:

• Best Performers: Crude Oil (CL=F) and Nasdaq Futures (NQ=F) delivered the most profitable and accurate outcomes, with bullish trades outperforming.

• Moderate Success: Gold (GC=F), Russell 2000 (RTY=F), and S&P 500 (ES=F) showed solid but less spectacular gains.

• Low Activity: Dow Jones (YM=F) and 30-Year Treasury Bonds (ZB=F) offered minimal trading opportunities due to consolidation and lack of volatility.

Trader Insights:

1. Key Lessons:

   • Crude oil's momentum from geopolitical tensions reinforced the value of monitoring external factors like OPEC updates.

   • Nasdaq's rally demonstrated the tech sector's ongoing influence on futures markets.

2. Improvements for Tomorrow:

   • Consider tighter stop losses for range-bound assets like ZB and YM to minimize capital tie-ups.

   • Increase position sizing in high-volatility instruments like CL and NQ for greater impact.

3. Overall Strategy Rating: 8.5/10

   • The pre-bell strategy accurately predicted market behavior across most assets, enabling strong trade setups and consistent gains.

Focus on maximizing volatility-driven instruments like CL and NQ tomorrow while maintaining risk discipline. Great job leveraging the strategy!