Post-Market Recap for The Futures Playbook - 21 Nov 2024

Today's futures trading presented a mix of sharp volatility and recovery across key indices, reinforcing the importance of flexibility and discipline in executing strategies.

1. ES=F (S&P 500 Futures)

• Planned Strategy:
  Bullish buy at 5960 targeting 6000, or bearish short at 5970 if rejected.

• Outcome:
  ES futures dropped sharply to a low of 5907.25 at 10:30 AM, testing the 5905 support zone, before recovering to close at 5971.25.

  • Hits:
    Traders who entered near 5905-5937 support capitalized on the recovery back toward 5970 and beyond.

  • Misses:
    The early drop challenged traders with tight stops, potentially missing the recovery.

  • Key Insight:
    The sharp intraday drop tested patience but reinforced the significance of adhering to strong support levels.

2. NQ=F (NASDAQ Futures)

• Planned Strategy:
  Bullish buy at 20850 targeting 21000, or bearish short at 20900 if rejected.

• Outcome:
  NQ futures surged at the bell, hitting 20905.75, before reversing sharply to a low of 20514 at 10:30 AM, then recovering to close at 20817.5.

  • Hits:
    The bearish short at 20900 delivered a strong move to the downside, meeting and surpassing the 20800target.

  • Misses:
    The bullish momentum early on was short-lived, requiring quick adjustments.

  • Key Insight:
    Early reversals demand traders stay vigilant around resistance levels like 20900.

3. YM=F (Dow Futures)

• Planned Strategy:
  Bullish buy at 43550 targeting 43800, or bearish short at 43700 targeting 43500.

• Outcome:
  YM futures hit a low of 43445 at 9:40 AM, dipping below the planned support zone, before rallying to close at 43999, far exceeding the target.

  • Hits:
    Recovery from the 43550-43445 area offered strong upside, reaching and surpassing 43800.

  • Misses:
    The initial dip below support required strong conviction to hold positions.

  • Key Insight:
    Volatility early in the session emphasized the importance of managing risk at key levels.

4. RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures)

• Planned Strategy:
  Avoid unless a clear breakout occurs.

• Outcome:
  RTY futures hit a low of 2321.7 before rebounding to close at 2372.9.

  • Hits:
    Avoiding this market avoided unnecessary risk.

  • Misses:
    A breakout above 2355 provided a limited but tradable opportunity.

  • Key Insight:
    RTY’s range-bound behavior remained predictable, validating its low-priority status.

5. GC=F (Gold Futures)

• Planned Strategy:
  Bullish buy at 2660 targeting 2700, or short at 2676 if rejected.

• Outcome:
  Gold tested a high of 2676.5 and closed at 2673.8, delivering solid upward momentum.

  • Hits:
    Bullish trades from 2660 to the 2676 resistance provided a reliable move.

  • Misses:
    The rejection at 2676 was brief, limiting bearish opportunities.

  • Key Insight:
    Safe-haven demand continued to drive the bullish trend as anticipated.

6. CL=F (Crude Oil Futures)

• Planned Strategy:
  Bullish buy at 70.00 targeting 71.00, or short at 70.50 if rejected.

• Outcome:
  Crude oil closed at 70.22, nearing the 70.40 resistance after an intraday low of 68.86.

  • Hits:
    The bullish entry aligned well with upward momentum, delivering a steady move toward resistance.

  • Misses:
    The move lacked the momentum to test 71.00.

  • Key Insight:
    Moderate momentum created predictable but less aggressive opportunities.

7. ZN=F (10-Year Treasury Futures)

• Planned Strategy:
  Avoid as low priority due to flat action.

• Outcome:
  ZN futures closed at 109.5781, with a narrow range as expected.

  • Hits:
    Avoiding this market saved time and effort.

  • Misses:
    No breakout opportunities were missed.

  • Key Insight:
    Flat price action validated the strategy’s low-priority rating.

8. ZB=F (30-Year Treasury Futures)

• Planned Strategy:
  Neutral to bearish bias; avoid unless compelling breakout.

• Outcome:
  ZB futures closed at 116.3125, reflecting quiet trading conditions.

  • Hits:
    Staying out of this market avoided unnecessary trades.

  • Misses:
    No significant opportunities materialized.

  • Key Insight:
    ZB remained range-bound and uninteresting for day trading.

Key Takeaways:

1. Sharp Morning Volatility:
   Both ES=F and NQ=F saw sharp drops during early trading hours, testing trader discipline and strategy execution.

2. Recovery Opportunities:
   YM=F and ES=F provided excellent recovery trades off key support levels.

3. Low-Priority Markets Delivered as Expected:
   RTY=F, ZN=F, and ZB=F behaved predictably with limited opportunities, aligning with the pre-bell strategy.

Final Grade: A-

The updated strategy successfully navigated challenging market conditions. Flexibility and focus on high-probability setups allowed for profitable trades, even amid intraday volatility. Let me know if you’d like further breakdowns or adjustments for tomorrow’s strategy!