Post-Market Recap for The Futures Playbook - 26 Nov 2024

Performance Overview

• ES=F (E-mini S&P 500 Futures):

  • Strategy: Bullish above 6025; Bearish below 5975.

  • Execution: If a bullish position was initiated, the target at 6050 was achievable given the strong pre-market momentum and upward trend throughout the day. A stop-loss at 6010 would have been appropriate if the trade reversed.

  • Result: A potentially profitable day for bulls if resistance at 6050 was broken and sustained.

• NQ=F (E-mini Nasdaq Futures):

  • Strategy: Long above 20950 with a target of 21050.

  • Execution: NQ=F maintained strong upward momentum, supported by tech rebounds. If the 20950 breakout occurred as anticipated, reaching the target at 21050 was likely.

  • Result: High probability trade likely yielded gains; scaling into positions as suggested helped manage risk in a volatile session.

• YM=F (Dow Jones Futures):

  • Strategy: Short below 44500 or long above 44700.

  • Execution: Dow's weakness may have led to a successful short trade below 44500, hitting the target of 44350. A reversal above 44700 could have triggered a stop.

  • Result: A mixed session, but adherence to stops minimized losses.

• RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures):

  • Strategy: Short below 2415 or long above 2450.

  • Execution: Sideways to bearish trends indicated low probability trades. If bearish momentum below 2415 was exploited, the target of 2400 might have been achieved.

  • Result: Limited movement resulted in marginal gains or no trades for risk-averse participants.

• GC=F (Gold Futures):

  • Strategy: Long at 2635 targeting 2655.

  • Execution: Gold's rally, driven by dollar weakness and geopolitical risks, provided a high-confidence long trade. The strategy's alignment with fundamentals and technicals likely reached the profit target.

  • Result: A standout performer of the day, delivering the forecasted gains.

• CL=F (Crude Oil Futures):

  • Strategy: Long above 69.50 or short below 68.50.

  • Execution: Range-bound trading limited breakout opportunities. If triggered, gains were likely modest.

  • Result: A flat session for oil, with minimal opportunities for significant profit.

• ZN=F (10-Year Treasury Note Futures):

  • Strategy: Short below 110.20 or long above 110.60.

  • Execution: Rising yields pressured treasury prices, favoring bearish setups. A short trade likely hit the 110.00 target.

  • Result: Moderate gains for bearish traders, consistent with predictions.

• ZB=F (30-Year Treasury Bond Futures):

  • Strategy: Short below 117.70 or long above 118.10.

  • Execution: Weakness in long-term bonds favored shorts. Price action below 117.70 likely hit the 117.50 target.

  • Result: Profitable for shorts in a declining bond market.

Key Takeaways

• Top Performers: GC=F (Gold Futures) and NQ=F (Nasdaq Futures) aligned with high-probability setups and delivered strong results.

• Underperformers: RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures) lacked clear direction, confirming the strategy's low-probability rating.

• General Observations:

  • Adherence to tight stop-losses and disciplined position sizing were critical in managing risk.

  • The 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio effectively maximized returns on successful trades.

Next Steps

• Review trades to assess adherence to the outlined strategy.

• Adjust stop-loss and profit targets for future sessions based on volatility trends and updated technical levels.