Post-Market Recap for The Futures Playbook - 25 Nov 2024
Overview of Strategy Performance
Today's trading strategy focused on eight futures contracts, emphasizing clear entry and exit points based on technical analysis and market trends. Here's how the key recommendations played out based on the provided data:
Key Performance Highlights
1. ES=F (E-Mini S&P 500 Futures)
Strategy Review:
Bullish entry above 6032 with a target of 6050.
Bearish entry below 6005 with a target of 5985.
Outcome:
Closed at 6011.75, with a high of 6040 and a low of 5982.5.
Despite the upward trend earlier, the price didn’t break the bullish resistance at 6032, leaving the bullish scenario untriggered. The price briefly dipped below 6005, activating the bearish scenario, but did not reach the target of 5985, highlighting a challenging range-bound day.
2. NQ=F (E-Mini NASDAQ Futures)
Strategy Review:
Bullish entry above 21,027 with a target of 21,100.
Bearish entry below 20,935 with a target of 20,875.
Outcome:
Closed at 20,897.25, with a high of 21,081 and a low of 20,780.25.
The bullish target at 21,027 was briefly breached but failed to sustain momentum to reach 21,100, resulting in a missed opportunity for profit.
3. YM=F (E-Mini Dow Futures)
Strategy Review:
Bullish entry above 44,795 with a target of 44,900.
Bearish entry below 44,500 with a target of 44,400.
Outcome:
Closed at 44,854, with a high of 44,915 and a low of 44,490.
The bullish scenario was triggered and successfully reached the target of 44,900, providing a profitable trade.
4. RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures)
Strategy Review:
Bullish entry above 2450 with a target of 2460.
Bearish entry below 2430 with a target of 2420.
Outcome:
Closed at 2451.9, with a high of 2477.1 and a low of 2427.9.
The bullish entry at 2450 was breached and exceeded the target of 2460, delivering a successful trade. A high near 2477.1 indicates potential for further bullish momentum.
5. GC=F (Gold Futures)
Strategy Review:
Bearish entry below 2660 with a target of 2650.
Bullish entry above 2700 with a target of 2715.
Outcome:
Closed at 2627.2, with a high of 2723.2 and a low of 2616.6.
The bearish strategy worked as anticipated with a breakdown below 2660, allowing traders to hit the 2650 target for a profitable trade. Continued USD strength contributed to gold's downside.
6. CL=F (Crude Oil Futures)
Strategy Review:
Bearish entry below 70.40 with a target of 69.80.
Bullish entry above 71.50 with a target of 72.20.
Outcome:
Closed at 69.09, with a high of 71.48 and a low of 68.74.
The bearish strategy activated, hitting the target of 69.80 and providing a successful trade opportunity.
7. ZN=F (10-Year Treasury Futures)
Strategy Review:
Bullish entry above 110.50 with a target of 111.00.
Bearish entry below 110.00 with a target of 109.75.
Outcome:
Closed at 110.46875, with a high of 110.5625 and a low of 109.84375.
Although the price moved close to the bullish trigger, it didn’t sustain above 110.50, leaving this trade untriggered.
8. ZB=F (30-Year Treasury Futures)
Strategy Review:
Bullish entry above 118.00 with a target of 118.50.
Bearish entry below 117.00 with a target of 116.50.
Outcome:
Closed at 118.125, with a high of 118.34375 and a low of 116.84375.
The bullish strategy worked as expected, hitting the target of 118.50 for a profitable trade.
General Observations
Success Rate:
Profitable trades were observed in YM=F, RTY=F, GC=F, CL=F, and ZB=F. This indicates a strong alignment with strategy recommendations.
Challenging Instruments:
ES=F and NQ=F faced resistance in achieving their targets, reflecting potential overbought conditions or muted momentum in broader equity markets.
Market Drivers:
USD strength weighed heavily on gold and crude oil, confirming the strategy's bearish scenarios.
Bond futures (ZN=F, ZB=F) showed bullish momentum driven by falling yields, aligning with broader macroeconomic trends.
Recommendations for Improvement
Adjust Stop-Losses: Instruments like ES=F and NQ=F showed tight trading ranges today. Wider stop-loss levels may be considered for such volatile markets.
Focus on High-Liquidity Futures: Instruments like YM=F and RTY=F performed exceptionally well with clear trend signals, making them ideal for future trades.
Evaluate Market Sentiment: Pay attention to macro drivers (e.g., USD index, bond yields) to refine strategies further.
Conclusion
Today's trading strategy achieved mixed results but delivered profits on key trades, demonstrating the effectiveness of technical analysis when executed with discipline. Future adjustments to stop-loss levels and a focus on high-momentum instruments could enhance overall performance.
