Post-Market Recap for The Futures Playbook - 14 Nov 2024
YM=F (Dow Jones Futures)
Day Summary: YM=F faced volatility throughout the session, failing to break above the critical resistance of 44250 and ultimately closing lower.
Performance: YM=F triggered the bearish scenario as it dipped below the support level of 44000, reaching a low near 43816, close to the bearish target of 43800.
Outcome: Bearish scenario met; this setup provided a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity for short trades.
Takeaway: The pre-market caution was warranted, and disciplined execution of the bearish scenario allowed for profitable trades.
NQ=F (Nasdaq Futures)
Day Summary: NQ=F showed strong bearish momentum, with a steady decline throughout the day, influenced by tech sector weakness.
Performance: The bearish scenario was triggered early as the price fell below 21000, ultimately hitting the bearish target of 20850 and even dipping further to around 20950.
Outcome: Bearish scenario exceeded expectations; the high probability setup yielded substantial gains.
Takeaway: Trusting the bearish sentiment and following the trend downward proved highly effective for intraday gains.
ES=F (S&P 500 Futures)
Day Summary: ES=F experienced a bearish day, with the price declining below the key 6000 support level.
Performance: The bearish scenario was successfully met as the price fell to the 5975 target, offering a profitable short trade opportunity.
Outcome: Bearish scenario met, aligned well with the overall market sentiment.
Takeaway: Patience and adherence to support levels paid off, as ES=F’s downward movement aligned with broader market trends.
RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures)
Day Summary: RTY=F saw weakness in the small-cap sector, dropping below the support level of 2375.
Performance: The bearish scenario was triggered as the price declined to the target of 2350, further affirming the bearish sentiment.
Outcome: Bearish scenario met; the expected volatility provided ample opportunity for gains on short trades.
Takeaway: Monitoring the small-cap sector's sensitivity to market sentiment allowed for a timely and profitable entry on the bearish side.
GC=F (Gold Futures)
Day Summary: GC=F remained under pressure as the USD continued to strengthen, pushing gold prices lower.
Performance: The bearish scenario triggered as the price fell below 2540, reaching the 2520 target.
Outcome: Bearish scenario met, benefiting from the continued USD strength.
Takeaway: Following the USD’s influence on gold allowed for a straightforward and effective trade on the bearish side.
CL=F (Crude Oil Futures)
Day Summary: CL=F traded with some volatility, testing resistance but ultimately failing to hold a bullish stance.
Performance: Price fluctuations near resistance levels offered limited opportunities, as the expected bullish breakout didn’t materialize, leading to a choppy session.
Outcome: Neutral result; limited profit opportunities due to failure to break out.
Takeaway: Caution with geopolitical factors impacting oil prices was prudent. Waiting for a more decisive move might have reduced the risk of false breakouts.
ZN=F (10-Year T-Note Futures)
Day Summary: ZN=F showed minimal movement, maintaining a range-bound session.
Performance: Limited opportunity as low volatility made it unsuitable for active day trading.
Outcome: Avoided, as anticipated.
Takeaway: Recognizing low volatility allowed for efficient resource allocation to more favorable setups.
ZB=F (30-Year T-Bond Futures)
Day Summary: ZB=F experienced slight gains but remained mostly stable within its range.
Performance: Limited day trading opportunities, consistent with pre-market expectations.
Outcome: Avoided, with little movement to capitalize on.
Takeaway: Recognizing low volatility and avoiding overtrading on this symbol helped in focusing on higher-probability trades.
Key Reflections and Takeaways:
Market Sentiment: The day was marked by bearish momentum across multiple assets, aligning with the broader market weakness.
Bearish Scenarios: Many of the bearish setups were successfully executed, benefiting from disciplined adherence to predefined levels.
Risk Management: Using tight stops on volatile assets ensured limited losses and capitalized on trending moves.
Focus on Volatile Assets: Emphasizing high-volatility assets like NQ=F and YM=F was beneficial, especially as tech and industrial stocks faced pressure.
Final Thought:
A challenging but rewarding day for short trades, with multiple scenarios meeting their targets. Adhering to a disciplined approach, particularly in bearish scenarios, underscored the importance of preparation and flexibility in volatile market conditions.
