Post-Market Recap for The Futures Playbook - 12 Nov 2024
Based on the morning trading strategy outlined in the latest pre-market strategy (sign up here), let’s evaluate how each futures contract performed and how well the suggested strategy might have played out by the day’s close.
YM (Dow Jones Futures)
Current Price: 44,062 (-379 points)
Day Performance: YM saw significant decline throughout the day, breaking through support at 44,400 and moving well below the initial resistance of 44,532.
Key Takeaway: The bearish scenario proved accurate, with YM failing to hold gains. Traders who shorted near 44,532 could have capitalized on the downward trend, hitting the target of 44,400 and even beyond.
NQ (Nasdaq Futures)
Current Price: 21,185.5 (-32.25 points)
Day Performance: NQ consolidated but moved downwards, staying within the set range but failing to break higher. It approached resistance at 21,250 but could not maintain momentum.
Key Takeaway: The bearish strategy was favorable, with NQ showing cautious sentiment. Short positions near 21,250 would have been effective, as the market remained under pressure from tech sector weaknesses.
ES (S&P 500 Futures)
Current Price: 6,012.75 (-19 points)
Day Performance: ES pulled back, breaking the support level of 6,012, reflecting profit-taking and hesitation near recent highs.
Key Takeaway: The bearish scenario played out well, with short trades from 6,032 reaching the target support level. Traders could capitalize on the overbought conditions in the morning, which led to a day-long sell-off.
RTY (Russell 2000 Futures)
Current Price: 2,405.4 (-43.1 points)
Day Performance: RTY faced a significant drop, breaching support at 2,426 and hitting new lows, reflecting heightened volatility in small caps.
Key Takeaway: The bearish trade scenario was highly successful, as RTY's weakness continued throughout the day. Short trades around 2,440 aligned with the strategy and provided a profitable move down to the target and beyond.
GC (Gold Futures)
Current Price: 2,606.5 (-11.2 points)
Day Performance: GC dropped, largely influenced by a stronger dollar, remaining within the bearish scenario range.
Key Takeaway: Short positions from 2,625 met expectations, as dollar strength persisted. The day’s performance validated the high likelihood of bearish trades.
CL (Crude Oil Futures)
Current Price: 68.01 (-0.03 points)
Day Performance: CL showed minor fluctuations but stayed below the key resistance level of 69.
Key Takeaway: Both bullish and bearish strategies were moderately active, though no major movements were observed. The market remained in a narrow range.
ZTN (10-Year Treasury Note Futures)
Current Price: 109.4375 (-0.47 points)
Day Performance: ZTN continued to show weakness, respecting the bearish sentiment with yields increasing.
Key Takeaway: The bearish setup was successful as ZTN dropped. Short trades around resistance at 110 aligned with the anticipated weakness, proving profitable.
ZTB (30-Year Treasury Bond Futures)
Current Price: 116.375 (-1.28125 points)
Day Performance: ZTB declined sharply, breaking below 117, highlighting the bearish pressure on bonds due to rising yields.
Key Takeaway: The bearish trade was highly effective, with prices falling as anticipated. Shorting near 118 proved beneficial, as ZTB hit new lows.
Summary
Today's market played out mostly in favor of bearish scenarios across major futures. Positions aligned with the strategy’s expectations, particularly for YM, RTY, and ZTB, which experienced pronounced declines. Volatility was moderate to high, offering numerous entry and exit points in line with the prepared scenarios. This roundup highlights the effectiveness of a cautious approach with emphasis on bearish setups due to profit-taking and economic concerns.
