Pre-Bell Futures Day Trading Strategy – 19 Nov 2024
Here’s a structured and detailed day trading strategy based on the data provided:
1. Market Overview
General Sentiment: Futures indices (ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F, RTY=F) are down significantly, indicating bearish market sentiment ahead of the open.
Treasuries: Bond futures (ZN=F, ZB=F) are up, suggesting a potential flight to safety.
Commodities: Gold (GC=F) is rising, reinforcing the risk-off sentiment. Crude oil (CL=F) is slightly down, reflecting tepid demand concerns.
Volatility Index (VIX): VIX is significantly up (+1.47), indicating higher market uncertainty.
2. Technical Analysis
ES=F (S&P 500 Futures)
Key Levels:
Support: 5860, 5830
Resistance: 5900, 5935Trend: Bearish. Price broke below the 5919 opening, with lower highs forming intraday.
Actionable Insight: A break below 5860 could lead to 5830. Watch for reversal patterns near 5900 for short-term scalping.
Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 5900. Target 5935; stop-loss: 5870.
Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 5860. Target 5830; stop-loss: 5885.
3. Foundational Analysis
Economic Data: Keep an eye on upcoming U.S. economic releases that could impact bond yields and equities.
News Headlines: Monitor geopolitical updates for crude oil and gold movement triggers.
Risk Appetite: Increased VIX implies heightened risk-aversion; watch for reactionary trades.
4. Trade Rating (Probability of Success)
1. ZN=F & ZB=F: High (75%+). Consistent buying with strong support levels.
2. GC=F: High (70%). Bullish sentiment supported by safe-haven flows.
3. ES=F: Moderate (60%). Bearish with potential for reversals.
4. NQ=F: Moderate (60%). High volatility with defined breakdown levels.
5. CL=F: Low (50%). Lack of clear directional bias.
6. RTY=F: Moderate (55%). Bearish, but choppy intraday movement.
5. Recommended Futures to Trade Today
High Probability Trades: ZN=F, ZB=F, GC=F
Moderate Probability Trades: ES=F, NQ=F, RTY=F
Avoid: CL=F (low conviction due to lack of momentum).
Prepare with alerts for critical levels and adjust for volatility surges after opening bell movements.
Day Trading Strategy Disclaimer
ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE STOCK MARKET, BUT YOU CAN MAKE INFORMED DECISIONS TO INCREASE YOUR CHANCES. IN DAY TRADING: MINDSET AND ATTITUDE BEATS SKILL. CHOOSE THE SCENARIO THAT MEETS YOUR RISK AND STRATEGY AND SECURE THE WIN. NOT EVERYDAY IS A TRADING DAY AND ALWAYS LIVE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY
The content provided in this blog, including day trading strategies, technical analysis, and market insights, is for informational and educational purposes only. The information should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement of any trading strategy. Trading futures, options, and other financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
You should thoroughly evaluate your financial situation and risk tolerance before engaging in any trading activities. It is advised that you consult with a licensed financial advisor or professional who can provide personalized investment advice tailored to your individual needs.
The author and publisher of this blog do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information and will not be liable for any losses or damages, including, but not limited to, any loss of profit or investment, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. By using this blog, you acknowledge and accept these terms and any inherent risks associated with trading.
Risk Warning: Leveraged trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please trade responsibly.
