Pre-Bell Futures Day Trading Strategy – 20 Nov 2024
Day Trading Strategy for November 20, 2024
Here is a detailed strategy for the futures contracts ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F, RTY=F, GC=F, CL=F, ZN=F, and ZB=F based on the data provided.
1. ES=F (S&P 500 Futures)
Market Overview
Current Price: 5945.5 (+6.75)
Moderate bullish momentum with a slight uptick. The index shows a steady climb with strong volume (147,045).
Technical Analysis
Resistance: 5957.75
Support: 5937
Indicators: RSI approaching overbought levels, but MACD is in a bullish crossover.
Fundamental Analysis
Optimism in U.S. equities following positive earnings and reduced geopolitical tensions.
VIX (16.22) is slightly down, indicating reduced market fear.
Scenarios
Bullish: Break above 5957.75 could target 5975. Stop loss at 5935.
Bearish: Failure at 5937 could drop to 5915. Stop loss at 5950.
Trade Rating: 7.5/10 (Moderate confidence for bullish scenario).
2. NQ=F (NASDAQ Futures)
Market Overview
Current Price: 20795.25 (+27.5)
Strong uptrend with high trading volume (94,335).
Technical Analysis
Resistance: 20843.2
Support: 20750.2
Indicators: Bullish divergence in RSI; MACD shows increasing bullish momentum.
Fundamental Analysis
Led by gains in tech giants (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN all up).
Improved sentiment in tech-heavy sectors with a weaker dollar aiding performance.
Scenarios
Bullish: A breakout above 20843 could target 20920. Stop loss at 20750.
Bearish: Rejection at resistance could lead to 20650. Stop loss at 20800.
Trade Rating: 8.5/10 (High confidence for bullish scenario).
3. YM=F (Dow Futures)
Market Overview
Current Price: 43495 (+95)
Slow, steady upward trend with lighter volume compared to tech-focused indices.
Technical Analysis
Resistance: 43563
Support: 43399
Indicators: RSI neutral; MACD shows weak upward momentum.
Fundamental Analysis
Gains led by industrial and healthcare stocks.
Watch for Fed-related interest rate commentary affecting interest-sensitive sectors.
Scenarios
Bullish: A move above 43563 could target 43700. Stop loss at 43400.
Bearish: A drop below 43399 could target 43250. Stop loss at 43500.
Trade Rating: 6/10 (Neutral with limited volatility).
4. RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures)
Market Overview
Current Price: 2331.1 (-3.0)
Weakness in small-cap stocks as risk appetite fades.
Technical Analysis
Resistance: 2343.5
Support: 2328.7
Indicators: Bearish MACD crossover; RSI slightly oversold.
Fundamental Analysis
Underperformance of small-cap sectors relative to large caps.
Lower liquidity could drive volatility.
Scenarios
Bullish: Reversal above 2343 could target 2355. Stop loss at 2328.
Bearish: Break below 2328 could lead to 2315. Stop loss at 2340.
Trade Rating: 5/10 (Weak confidence due to bearish pressure).
5. GC=F (Gold Futures)
Market Overview
Current Price: 2639.1 (+8.1)
Gold rises on weaker USD (DX-Y.NYB at 106.568).
Technical Analysis
Resistance: 2645.3
Support: 2621.9
Indicators: Strong bullish RSI; MACD accelerating upwards.
Fundamental Analysis
Weaker USD and stable treasury yields favor gold.
Investor demand rising amid inflationary concerns.
Scenarios
Bullish: Breakout above 2645 could target 2660. Stop loss at 2625.
Bearish: Failure at resistance could target 2610. Stop loss at 2640.
Trade Rating: 8/10 (High confidence for bullish scenario).
6. CL=F (Crude Oil Futures)
Market Overview
Current Price: 69.95 (+0.56)
Stabilizing after prior volatility.
Technical Analysis
Resistance: 70.15
Support: 69.38
Indicators: Neutral RSI; MACD flat.
Fundamental Analysis
Supply concerns from OPEC balanced by slowing demand.
Dollar strength limits gains.
Scenarios
Bullish: Above 70.15 could target 71.00. Stop loss at 69.30.
Bearish: Below 69.38 could target 68.50. Stop loss at 70.00.
Trade Rating: 6.5/10 (Moderate confidence).
7. ZN=F (10-Year Treasury Futures)
Market Overview
Current Price: 109.5 (-0.34375)
Mild bearish sentiment as yields tick up.
Technical Analysis
Resistance: 109.8125
Support: 109.484375
Indicators: Weak MACD; RSI nearing oversold.
Fundamental Analysis
Rising yields signal reduced demand for bonds.
Market pricing in hawkish Fed stance.
Scenarios
Bullish: Break above 109.81 could target 110.05. Stop loss at 109.40.
Bearish: Below 109.48 could target 109.00. Stop loss at 109.60.
Trade Rating: 5.5/10 (Limited volatility).
8. ZB=F (30-Year Treasury Futures)
Market Overview
Current Price: 116.25 (-0.65625)
Bearish sentiment amid rising yields.
Technical Analysis
Resistance: 116.78125
Support: 116.125
Indicators: MACD weakening; RSI slightly oversold.
Fundamental Analysis
Inflation data and Fed expectations weigh on long-term bonds.
Scenarios
Bullish: Break above 116.78 could target 117.00. Stop loss at 116.00.
Bearish: Below 116.12 could target 115.50. Stop loss at 116.40.
Trade Rating: 5/10 (Low volatility, weak trends).
Recommendations
Best Trades
NQ=F - Bullish breakout likely.
GC=F - Strong bullish fundamentals.
Avoid
ZN=F, ZB=F due to limited movement.
Overall Take Profit & Stop Loss for the Day
Take Profit: 2% of account balance.
Stop Loss: 1% of account balance.
This strategy emphasizes high-probability setups while managing risk effectively. Let me know if you need further customization!
Day Trading Strategy Disclaimer
ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE STOCK MARKET, BUT YOU CAN MAKE INFORMED DECISIONS TO INCREASE YOUR CHANCES. IN DAY TRADING: MINDSET AND ATTITUDE BEATS SKILL. CHOOSE THE SCENARIO THAT MEETS YOUR RISK AND STRATEGY AND SECURE THE WIN. NOT EVERYDAY IS A TRADING DAY AND ALWAYS LIVE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY
The content provided in this blog, including day trading strategies, technical analysis, and market insights, is for informational and educational purposes only. The information should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement of any trading strategy. Trading futures, options, and other financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
You should thoroughly evaluate your financial situation and risk tolerance before engaging in any trading activities. It is advised that you consult with a licensed financial advisor or professional who can provide personalized investment advice tailored to your individual needs.
The author and publisher of this blog do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information and will not be liable for any losses or damages, including, but not limited to, any loss of profit or investment, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. By using this blog, you acknowledge and accept these terms and any inherent risks associated with trading.
Risk Warning: Leveraged trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please trade responsibly.
