Pre-Bell Futures Day Trading Strategy – 19 Nov 2024

Here’s a structured and detailed day trading strategy based on the data provided:

1. Market Overview

• General Sentiment: Futures indices (ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F, RTY=F) are down significantly, indicating bearish market sentiment ahead of the open.

• Treasuries: Bond futures (ZN=F, ZB=F) are up, suggesting a potential flight to safety.

• Commodities: Gold (GC=F) is rising, reinforcing the risk-off sentiment. Crude oil (CL=F) is slightly down, reflecting tepid demand concerns.

• Volatility Index (VIX): VIX is significantly up (+1.47), indicating higher market uncertainty.

2. Technical Analysis

ES=F (S&P 500 Futures)

• Key Levels:
  Support: 5860, 5830
  Resistance: 5900, 5935

• Trend: Bearish. Price broke below the 5919 opening, with lower highs forming intraday.

• Actionable Insight: A break below 5860 could lead to 5830. Watch for reversal patterns near 5900 for short-term scalping.

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 5900. Target 5935; stop-loss: 5870.

• Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 5860. Target 5830; stop-loss: 5885.

NQ=F (Nasdaq Futures)

• Key Levels:
  Support: 20420, 20350
  Resistance: 20550, 20650

• Trend: Strong Bearish. Down 169 points with heavy selling pressure.

• Actionable Insight: Look for a breakdown below 20420 for continuation; potential relief rally near 20550.

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 20550. Target 20650; stop-loss: 20480.

• Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 20420. Target 20350; stop-loss: 20480.

YM=F (Dow Futures)

• Key Levels:
  Support: 43000, 42800
  Resistance: 43400, 43550

• Trend: Bearish. Broke below the psychological level of 43500.

• Actionable Insight: Trade momentum in line with a breakdown below 43000.

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 43400. Target 43550; stop-loss: 43250.

• Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 43000. Target 42800; stop-loss: 43150.

RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures)

• Key Levels:
  Support: 2280, 2265
  Resistance: 2300, 2315

• Trend: Bearish. Weakness in small caps persists.

• Actionable Insight: Monitor 2280 for breakdown; potential rebound near 2300.

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 2300. Target 2315; stop-loss: 2290.

• Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 2280. Target 2265; stop-loss: 2290.

GC=F (Gold Futures)

• Key Levels:
  Support: 2625, 2605
  Resistance: 2645, 2655

• Trend: Bullish. Risk-off flows bolstering gold prices.

• Actionable Insight: Look for momentum continuation above 2645.

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 2645. Target 2655; stop-loss: 2630.

• Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 2625. Target 2605; stop-loss: 2635.

CL=F (Crude Oil Futures)

• Key Levels:
  Support: 68.50, 67.80
  Resistance: 69.40, 70.00

• Trend: Neutral-Bearish. Price struggling near $69; likely consolidating.

• Actionable Insight: A break below 68.50 confirms downside potential.

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 69.40. Target 70.00; stop-loss: 68.90.

• Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 68.50. Target 67.80; stop-loss: 69.00.

ZN=F (10-Year Treasury Futures)

• Key Levels:
  Support: 109.60, 109.30
  Resistance: 110.10, 110.40

• Trend: Bullish. Strong buying in Treasuries.

• Actionable Insight: Look for consolidation break above 110.10.

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 110.10. Target 110.40; stop-loss: 109.80.

• Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 109.60. Target 109.30; stop-loss: 109.80.

ZB=F (30-Year Treasury Futures)

• Key Levels:
  Support: 117.10, 116.70
  Resistance: 117.50, 117.80

• Trend: Bullish. Price pushing higher on flight-to-safety flows.

• Actionable Insight: Monitor breakout above 117.50 for continuation.

• Bullish Scenario: Enter long above 117.50. Target 117.80; stop-loss: 117.20.

• Bearish Scenario: Enter short below 117.10. Target 116.70; stop-loss: 117.30.

3. Foundational Analysis

• Economic Data: Keep an eye on upcoming U.S. economic releases that could impact bond yields and equities.

• News Headlines: Monitor geopolitical updates for crude oil and gold movement triggers.

• Risk Appetite: Increased VIX implies heightened risk-aversion; watch for reactionary trades.

4. Trade Rating (Probability of Success)

1.    ZN=F & ZB=F: High (75%+). Consistent buying with strong support levels.

2.    GC=F: High (70%). Bullish sentiment supported by safe-haven flows.

3.    ES=F: Moderate (60%). Bearish with potential for reversals.

4.    NQ=F: Moderate (60%). High volatility with defined breakdown levels.

5.    CL=F: Low (50%). Lack of clear directional bias.

6.    RTY=F: Moderate (55%). Bearish, but choppy intraday movement.

5. Recommended Futures to Trade Today

• High Probability Trades: ZN=F, ZB=F, GC=F

• Moderate Probability Trades: ES=F, NQ=F, RTY=F

• Avoid: CL=F (low conviction due to lack of momentum).

Prepare with alerts for critical levels and adjust for volatility surges after opening bell movements.

Day Trading Strategy Disclaimer

ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE STOCK MARKET, BUT YOU CAN MAKE INFORMED DECISIONS TO INCREASE YOUR CHANCES. IN DAY TRADING: MINDSET AND ATTITUDE BEATS SKILL. CHOOSE THE SCENARIO THAT MEETS YOUR RISK AND STRATEGY AND SECURE THE WIN. NOT EVERYDAY IS A TRADING DAY AND ALWAYS LIVE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY

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