Pre-Bell Futures Day Trading Strategy – 15 Nov 2024
"Success in trading isn’t about predicting the market—it’s about preparing for any outcome. Stay disciplined, manage your risks, and remember: every trade is a step on the path to mastery. Let’s conquer today!"
Based on the recent news and provided data, here’s a detailed day trading strategy for each major futures contract, factoring in the current macroeconomic conditions and recent market movements.
YM=F (Dow Jones Futures)
Market Overview
The Dow is likely to face downward pressure after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts are not on the table in the near future(stock-market-today-dow-…). This could weigh heavily on growth-sensitive indices, especially as bond yields remain elevated.
Technical Analysis
Support Levels: 43600, 43350
Resistance Levels: 43900, 44200
Indicators: RSI shows oversold territory, MACD is bearish.
Trend Identification
Current trend is bearish in response to high-interest-rate expectations.
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 43900 with a target of 44200. Stop Loss: 43750.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 43600 targeting 43350. Stop Loss: 43750.
Trade Rating: Bearish trades have a 70% likelihood due to economic headwinds.
NQ=F (NASDAQ Futures)
Market Overview
NASDAQ futures are particularly sensitive to Powell's comments as tech stocks typically struggle in high-rate environments(tech-fed-outlooks-blunt…).
Technical Analysis
Support Levels: 20700, 20500
Resistance Levels: 20950, 21100
Indicators: MACD is sharply bearish; RSI indicates oversold territory, but caution is advised.
Trend Identification
NASDAQ is trending lower, with potential for continued weakness if yields stay high.
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 20950, targeting 21100. Stop Loss: 20800.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 20700 with a target of 20500. Stop Loss: 20850.
Trade Rating: Bearish trades are highly favored (75% likelihood), given rate sensitivity in tech.
ES=F (S&P 500 Futures)
Market Overview
The S&P is showing broad-based weakness due to Powell’s stance on rates and disappointing tech earnings(stock-market-today-dow-…)(nvidia-corp-nvda-citi-r…).
Technical Analysis
Support Levels: 5930, 5900
Resistance Levels: 5970, 6000
Indicators: The MACD is turning bearish; volume spikes indicate increased selling pressure.
Trend Identification
S&P 500 futures are bearish as investors move out of risk assets.
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 5970, targeting 6000. Stop Loss: 5950.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 5930, targeting 5900. Stop Loss: 5950.
Trade Rating: Bearish trades are likely to succeed with a 65% probability due to macro risks.
RTY=F (Russell 2000 Futures)
Market Overview
Small caps represented by Russell 2000 are under pressure due to fears over prolonged higher interest rates impacting growth(dollar-rises-december-f…).
Technical Analysis
Support Levels: 2325, 2300
Resistance Levels: 2355, 2380
Indicators: RSI is neutral; MACD trending bearish.
Trend Identification
Bearish trend influenced by rate concerns.
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 2355 with a target of 2380. Stop Loss: 2340.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 2325, targeting 2300. Stop Loss: 2340.
Trade Rating: Bearish trades have a 70% likelihood of success.
GC=F (Gold Futures)
Market Overview
Gold is likely to benefit from economic uncertainty and higher rates, with investors turning to safe-haven assets.
Technical Analysis
Support Levels: 2560, 2540
Resistance Levels: 2585, 2600
Indicators: MACD is bullish; RSI moving towards overbought.
Trend Identification
Bullish trend as investors seek refuge from volatile equities.
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 2585, targeting 2600. Stop Loss: 2570.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 2560 with a target of 2540. Stop Loss: 2575.
Trade Rating: Bullish trades are favored (60%) due to safe-haven appeal.
CL=F (Crude Oil Futures)
Market Overview
Oil prices are softening due to demand concerns amid economic uncertainty, especially with pressure from high rates(dollar-rises-december-f…).
Technical Analysis
Support Levels: 67.50, 66.00
Resistance Levels: 69.00, 70.50
Indicators: RSI is oversold, MACD turning bullish on short-term reversal.
Trend Identification
Bearish with potential short-term rebounds.
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 69.00 targeting 70.50. Stop Loss: 68.50.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 67.50 targeting 66.00. Stop Loss: 68.00.
Trade Rating: Bearish trades are stronger (65%) on economic slowdown fears.
ZN=F (10-Year Treasury Note Futures)
Market Overview
Treasuries may see increased demand as a safe-haven amid equity market volatility, but rising yields cap potential gains.
Technical Analysis
Support Levels: 109.00, 108.75
Resistance Levels: 109.50, 109.75
Indicators: MACD is neutral; RSI at moderate levels.
Trend Identification
Slightly bullish with high volatility.
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 109.50 with a target of 109.75. Stop Loss: 109.25.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 109.00, targeting 108.75. Stop Loss: 109.25.
Trade Rating: Slightly bullish (55%) as a safe-haven move.
ZB=F (30-Year Treasury Bond Futures)
Market Overview
Similar to ZN=F, 30-year bonds might attract safe-haven flows but face challenges from rising yields.
Technical Analysis
Support Levels: 115.80, 115.50
Resistance Levels: 116.50, 116.80
Indicators: RSI is neutral, MACD trending slightly bullish.
Trend Identification
Cautious bullish outlook due to investor flight to safety.
Scenarios
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 116.50 with a target of 116.80. Stop Loss: 116.20.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 115.80, targeting 115.50. Stop Loss: 116.10.
Trade Rating: Moderate bullish trades (60%).
Recommendations for Trading
Top Trades (Based on Likelihood of Success):
YM=F (Dow Jones) – Bearish
NQ=F (NASDAQ) – Bearish
CL=F (Crude Oil) – Bearish
GC=F (Gold) – Bullish
Trades to Avoid:
ZN=F (10-Year Treasury) due to mixed signals and potential volatility.
ZB=F (30-Year Treasury), as it may remain range-bound with unclear direction.
This strategy positions you to take advantage of expected market movements and stay ahead of volatility. Make sure to adjust stop-losses and targets in line with real-time conditions. Happy trading!
Day Trading Strategy Disclaimer
ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS. NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE STOCK MARKET, BUT YOU CAN MAKE INFORMED DECISIONS TO INCREASE YOUR CHANCES. IN DAY TRADING: MINDSET AND ATTITUDE BEATS SKILL. CHOOSE THE SCENARIO THAT MEETS YOUR RISK AND STRATEGY AND SECURE THE WIN. NOT EVERYDAY IS A TRADING DAY AND ALWAYS LIVE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY
The content provided in this blog, including day trading strategies, technical analysis, and market insights, is for informational and educational purposes only. The information should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement of any trading strategy. Trading futures, options, and other financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
You should thoroughly evaluate your financial situation and risk tolerance before engaging in any trading activities. It is advised that you consult with a licensed financial advisor or professional who can provide personalized investment advice tailored to your individual needs.
The author and publisher of this blog do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information and will not be liable for any losses or damages, including, but not limited to, any loss of profit or investment, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. By using this blog, you acknowledge and accept these terms and any inherent risks associated with trading.
Risk Warning: Leveraged trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please trade responsibly.
